Monthly Property Insights

Over the first 4-5 months of the year, property sales volumes are showing a rise of around 5-10% from the same period in 2024 and are also comfortably ahead of 2022 and 2023 levels. It’s been a long and slow grind from the cyclical lulls seen a few years ago, but housing activity can now broadly be considered to be back to normal. Within that total, which groups have been the most active?

First home buyers are still enjoying conditions

The Cotality Buyer Classification data shows that first home buyers (FHBs) have accounted for around 25% of property purchases in the year to date, not quite up at record highs, but still very strong and certainly well above the long-term average of around 21-22%.

FHBs continue to show a strong desire to get that security of tenure which comes with property ownership (even though weekly rents are typically below a mortgage payment), while they’re also making the most of the low deposit lending allowances at the banks, and also tapping into their KiwiSaver funds as well to help finance the purchase. Reserve Bank lending data shows that nearly half of all FHBs have entered the market recently with less than a 20% deposit.

Mortgaged multiple property owners are on the comeback trail

Mortgaged MPOs – including investors – have accounted for around 23% of activity so far in 2025, up from 2024’s full-year figure of 22%, but still below their normal level of around 25%.

The continued return of mortgaged investors will have been helped by reduced deposit requirements last July, as well as the shortening of the Brightline Test and full reinstatement of mortgage interest deductibility. But it would seem to me that the biggest change has simply been lower mortgage rates themselves, which significantly reduce the weekly top-up out of other income that ‘Mums and Dads’ would typically require on a standard rental property purchase.

Relocating owner-occupiers remain a little cautious

Over the past couple of years, and in 2025 to date as well, ‘movers’ haven’t been shifting as often as normal, accounting for 26-27% of activity in recent years, down from the more normal level of 28-29%. A general sense of caution around the economy and job (in)security I suspect is a key factor keeping more people where they are rather than looking to trade up (or down).

(The remaining 25% of activity has gone to other groups such as cash domestic investors, re-entry buyers, and ‘new to market’, which could include a cash foreign buyer.)

Where to next?

With the lagged effects of lower mortgage rates still flowing through to the market, the economy likely to slowly recover, and net migration still positive (for now at least), there’s a good chance that overall sales volumes in the housing market will continue to lift. This should allow all of the various buyer groups to do more deals in 2025 than last year.

In terms of market share, however, not all boats can float at the same time – the numbers must always add up to 100! I suspect that movers and mortgaged investors will see a higher market share this year than last, with FHBs possibly fading a little. But don’t fret – as noted above – there can still be more FHBs in the market in terms of raw numbers.