Monthly Property Insights

The Cotality Home Value Index showed another sluggish result in December, falling by -0.2% at the national level. The median now sits at $808,430, which was down by a marginal -1.0% in 2025, but also remains -17.6% less than the early 2022 peak.

In a nutshell, then, 2025 was another flattish year for property values, after something similar in 2024 too (following the big downturn in 2022-23). How does the segment and regional picture look and what might lie ahead in 2026?

Smaller dwellings and Auckland & Wellington are lagging a bit

When we split the data by property type, it shows that standalone houses were ‘only’ down by -0.7% in the 2025 calendar year, but median values for townhouses dropped by -1.8% and apartments fell by -4.2%. I wouldn’t say that those differences are overwhelming, but the slight underperformance by townhouses likely reflects the continued pipeline of new construction coming through, and some concerns about apartment insurance premiums (especially if they’re at seismic risk) may be weighing on values in that segment to some extent.

Turning to the regional split, Christchurch saw median values lift by 2.6% in 2025 and Tauranga was up by 1.0%. Other solid results came from markets such as Invercargill, Queenstown, parts of Canterbury, and the West Coast. By contrast, Wellington dipped by -2.0% and Auckland by -2.6%.

The construction pipeline and insurance risks are relevant factors for Auckland and Wellington respectively, but a lack of economic confidence in those key main centres has probably also restrained property values too.

2025 was ‘the year of conflicting forces’

In the event, our prediction that multiple factors would push in opposite or conflicting directions last year and leave property values broadly flat wasn’t too far off the mark. On one hand, mortgage rates came down and no doubt that gave some upwards support for house prices. But this was offset by an abundance of listings and weak economy, with rising unemployment.

2026 might be ‘the year of rebuilding confidence’

Of course, with property values still down significantly from the peaks in many parts of NZ and interest rates lower, the good news is that housing affordability looks a lot better than it’s been for several years. There’s also solid evidence coming through of an economic recovery, which should see employment rise this year and raise households’ confidence levels.

In turn, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see property values on average rise by around 5% in 2026. That would be welcomed by property owners/sellers, but also modest enough for would-be buyers to still have time to save their deposit without falling significantly further behind.

Under the surface there’ll also be plenty else to keep an eye on this year, including the effects of debt to income ratio caps, electioneering (e.g. capital gains tax debates), and also how borrowers react in an environment where mortgage rates seem to have reached a floor.